Will the Nifty hit 18000 and the Bank Nifty 43000 this week?

Will the Nifty hit 18000 and the Bank Nifty 43000 this week: The Nifty (17,624.05) and Bank Nifty (42,118.00), the two Indian benchmark indices, have been trading in a consolidation range for the past few sessions. Due to the lack of buying interest and global uncertainty, the Indian equity market traded flat last week.

Nifty and Bank Nifty will probably try to take cues from the global markets. But we can’t ignore the good set of Q4 numbers from the two heavyweights, Reliance and ICICI Bank. The market will reflect extreme volatility as the April F&O expiration is due next Thursday.

Market Movement Last Week

The Indian stock market witnessed a week of lackluster and choppy performance last week. The Nifty and Bank Nifty were marginally negative. Investors appeared unenthusiastic to engage in significant buying activities before the weekend. Investors refrained from making any move due to the overhang of RIL and ICICI Bank’s Q4 results. You can read also the full explanation of the market movement of last week here.

Nifty and Banknifty Movement of the Last Week

Last week, the closing prices for the Nifty and Bank Nifty were 17,624.05 and 42,118, respectively. The Nifty dropped 203.95 points, or 1.14%, in the week. However, the Banknifty ended the week unchanged, falling 14.55 points, or 0.03%.

Overall, the movement of both indices remained uninspiring and lacked any significant momentum throughout the week. Moreover, the volatility of the market limited the upside potential last week.

Nifty Prediction for This Week 24-28 April 2023

In the 1 hour chart of the Nifty, we see that the index spent the last week within the same falling channel. The falling wedge formation of the chart indicates either a breakout or breakdown will happen this week. So, traders must be very cautious about the spurt in volatility and price action activities this week.

According to the chart, the trigger levels of the breakout and breakdown will be 17650 and 17550, respectively, on an hourly closing basis. On the upside, the first resistance will be the previous high of the Nifty at 17863. If Nifty 50 breaks the previous high at 17863, then the next probable zone will be 17900–18100.

But on the downside, the first support will be at 17353, the 200-day MA on the hourly chart. If Nifty breaks this support also, then the next area will be 17200–17125. This area was the previous gap of Nifty, made earlier.

Nifty Upside and Downside Levels for This Week 24-28 April

Bank Nifty Prediction for This Week 24-28 April 2023

The Bank Nifty has been trading in a constrained range on its hourly chart for the past week. Similarly to the Nifty, the Bank Nifty is also making a downward trend line inside a channel. So, a channel breakout or breakdown is imminent this week.  

Based on the chart, the breakout and breakdown trigger levels are 42300 and 41900, respectively, on an hourly closing basis. If the Bank Nifty surpasses the previous high of 42600, the next probable zone will be between 42800-43100-43500. On the other hand, the first support level is at 41660, and if it breaks, the following support areas will be 41200-40700 and 40200-40055.

Bank Nifty Upside and Downside Levels for This Week 24-28 April 2023

Nifty and Bank Nifty Options Chain Analysis for 27th April 2023

Based on the analyzed options data for the April month F&O expiry, it appears that BankNifty may exhibit more weakness compared to Nifty.

• The highest open interest for Nifty is observed at 17700 CE and 17000 PE, with an equal amount of call and put writing in all nearby contracts from the spot price.
• In contrast, BankNifty has the highest open interest at the 42000 PE option and 42500 CE option, with a smaller range.
• There is also considerable put buying seen in all ATM and OTM option contracts for BankNifty, indicating that traders are looking to protect themselves against a possible downside move.
• Additionally, significant call-selling activities have been observed for BankNifty, which further supports the bearish sentiment.

BankNifty seems to be more bearish compared to Nifty, based on the fact that traders are buying a lot of put options and selling call options, which indicates a negative sentiment towards BankNifty. However, it’s important to remember that this is just one piece of information, and other factors should also be considered before making any trading decisions.

Will Reliance and Icici BANK End Consolidation

The Indian stock market has been in a consolidation zone for the last few trading sessions, but things may be changing soon. Two Nifty heavyweights companies, Reliance and ICICI Bank posted a good set of Q4 numbers last week. Both have done well and are on an upward trend for the long term. However, in the short-term chart structure, ICICI Bank seems to be more bearish than Reliance.

To help the market get better this week, ICICI Bank needs to start doing better and go up. This will help both NIFTY and Bank Nifty provide a breakout from the tight range.

Conclusion

To achieve and surpass the targets of 18000 in Nifty and 43000 in Bank Nifty, the Indian equity market may consider multiple factors including global markets, political tension, commodity prices, forex movements, and Q4 results of other index heavyweights. The upcoming F&O expiration of April 2023 indicates that the Indian market will experience high volatility this week.

Furthermore, the current option data does not provide a clear trend for both Nifty and Bank Nifty. Therefore, to see a new higher range this week, leaders such as ICICI Bank and Reliance must take charge and lead the way. It’s important to keep in mind that reaching these targets will depend on various factors, and traders should always conduct thorough research before making decisions.

Please note that all levels discussed above, including those for Nifty and Banknifty, are spot prices.

Chart Credit: Chartink

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