Indian Stock Market Outlook: 14-18 Aug 2023

Published by sensitrend date : 14/08/2023

The Indian stock markets have experienced losses for three weeks in a row. After the RBI's policy decision, banking stocks experienced sharp falls; negative global cues and selling pressure from international investors also had an adverse effect on market sentiment.

Image credit: Unsplash

MARKET UPDATE

Data on local inflation, global macroeconomic indicators, FII activities, and crude oil prices will be the main topics of discussion in the THIS week. 

Image credit: Unsplash

Key Factors

According to recent data, India's industrial production fell by 3.7% in June, which is cause for concern. To $601.453 billion, foreign exchange reserves decreased. Data on inflation from the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) will affect the markets THIS week. Due to growing food prices, experts expect the CPI to increase by 6.5%.

Image credit: Unsplash

Domestic Economic Data

The WPI Inflation, CPI Inflation, Balance of Trade, and Foreign Exchange Reserves are among the significant data releases scheduled for the following week. Traders should exercise caution, particularly in light of the possible implications of inflation figures.

Image credit: Unsplash

Economic Data THIS Week

Markets will be impacted by a wide range of global macroeconomic data, such as GDP growth rates, industrial production, and inflation readings from different countries.

Image credit: Unsplash

Global Macroeconomic Data

Saudi Arabia and Russia's production cuts caused the price of crude oil to steadily rise. The second-largest importer of crude oil, India, could be impacted by additional increases, which would change the mood of the market.

Image credit: Unsplash

Crude Oil Prices

FIIs were net sellers, selling shares worth Rs. 4702.06 crore, while DIIs were net buyers, buying shares worth Rs. 2224.3 crore. Monitoring FII activity will reveal potential market trends.

Image credit: Unsplash

FII & DIIs Flow

Following the RBI policy announcement, market sentiment changed. These things may keep the THIS week under pressure. 

Image credit: Unsplash

Action Points

The Nifty and Bank Nifty indices are currently under pressure. Price action suggests the potential for further decline.

Image credit: Unsplash

Nifty & Bank Nifty Outlook

The chart structures of the benchmark indices haven't fundamentally changed despite the continued decline. Within the larger uptrend, the recent dip is seen as a corrective phase. After this phase of corrective trading, look for a new rebound in the upcoming weeks.

Image credit: Unsplash

Market Structure

A crucial support level for Nifty is located around 19,300. If this support is breached, prices could drop to levels between 19,100 and 19000. In a more pessimistic case, the Nifty might go as low as 18,800. The probable bottom is anticipated to fall between 19,100 and 18,800.

Image credit: Chartink

Nifty Support & Targets

There is significant resistance for BankNifty between 44,450 and 44,600. Expect a likely decline initially to 43,500, then a potential further decline to 42,700.

Image credit: Chartink

Bank Nifty Support & Targets