Nifty 50 Prediction for Next week: The Nifty 50 index in India experienced extreme volatility and ended the week on a fragile note. Weekly extreme volatility reflects the impact of the US banking crisis. The benchmark index swung between a high of 17529.9 and a low of 16850.15. It shows a wide range of over 679 points from high to low. The closing value of Nifty 50 was 17001.05 on Friday. The closing price is significantly lower than the high and just marginally above the low.
The big swing indicates a high level of uncertainty and panic in the market. The Nifty 50’s movement reflected the overall sentiment of the global markets. The fall of the Nifty 50 was largely due to the extreme volatility and weakness in the Nifty Bank index. This was shaken by the news of the bank failures in the US and the crash of Credit Suisse’s share price.
Key factors for the Nifty 50 Prediction for next week
EMAs, Support & Resistance Levels
| EMA | Nifty 50 Price |
|---|---|
| 5-DAY EMA | 17112.12 |
| 10-DAY EMA | 17236.58 |
| 21-DAY EMA | 17413.97 |
| 50-DAY EMA | 17652.09 |
| 200-DAY EMA | 17575.74 |
Based on the EMA of the Nifty 50 on the daily chart, we can see that the Nifty is currently trading well below all EMAs. It indicates a clear bearish trend of Nifty 50 for the next week.
Weekly Pivot of NIFTY 50
Based on the weekly pivot levels of NIFTY, here are the key levels you should be paying attention to:
| Pivot Levels | Nifty 50 Price |
|---|---|
| Pivot | 17127.7 |
| Resistance 1 | 17405.25 |
| Resistance 2 | 17807.45 |
| Resistance 3 | 18186.95 |
| Support 1 | 16725.5 |
| Support 2 | 16447.05 |
| Support 3 | 16071.1 |
The Nifty 50 closing price is 17100.05 on a weekly basis. Pivot levels of Nifty 50 on a weekly basis suggest a weaker setup unless and until Nifty sustains above 17127.7. The immediate resistance and support for the spot Nifty will be at 17405.25 and 16725.5 respectively.
PCR Value and Nifty Open Interest
Derivative data of Nifty: The Put-Call ratio (PCR) value for the Nifty is currently at 0.6841, which indicates neutral sentiment. Additionally, the highest number of open interest additions have been seen at 17,800 CALL and 17,000 PUT strike prices for the March(23rd) expiry, which suggests that these levels could act as crucial resistance and support zones. We saw fresh additions in PUTS on last Friday. So, it’s a clear indication of a fresh long bet believing a reversal rally from the recent lows below 17000.
Multi-Time Frame Analysis for the Nifty 50 Index
Hourly chart for the Nifty 50
Daily chart for Nifty 50
The weekly chart for Nifty 50
Nifty 50 Prediction for Next Week
Nifty EMA
Based on multiple time frames, including hourly, daily, and weekly charts, the Nifty 50 index is trading well below all EMAs for short to long time frames, except for the hourly chart. Looking at the charts, it appears that the immediate resistance zone for the Nifty 50 is between 17200 and 17250. If this resistance is breached, the Nifty 50 may face additional hurdles above 17400 and 17550. On the other hand, the next immediate support for the Nifty 50 will be at 17050, followed by a strong support level at 16950 on a closing basis.
Nifty Demand Area
In the past, we have seen multiple demand zones at 16950, from which Nifty bounced very sharply toward 18000. Currently, the Nifty spot has not violated this range on a closing basis, although it did make a low of 16850.15 on an intraday basis. The likelihood is that the Nifty 50 will respect this area as strong support and may potentially give a reversal rally of 2–3% on the upside. However, if the Nifty 50 closes below 16,950, it could bring further bearishness into the market. This could potentially lead to a decline to the range 16750–16600, which is another good demand area.
For now, the focus should be on the support level at 16950 and the resistance level at 16250. If these levels are breached on a closing basis, it could lead to a fresh move on the Nifty 50 index, either on the downside or upside.
Nifty Outlook
The current outlook for the Nifty 50 index is looking bearish at the moment if we consider its price action. So, any potential rebound up to the 16,400 mark should be seen as an opportunity to sell. However, if the index manages to close above 16,450, it could act as a protective barrier against further downside and potentially lead to a strong foundation for future gains in the coming days. Keep a close eye on these levels, as they could prove to be crucial for making smart investment decisions.
Global Market for Next Week: FOMC Meeting 2023
FOMC Meeting Time
The world’s financial markets are keeping a close eye on the upcoming FOMC(Federal Open Market Committee) meeting minutes, scheduled for next week. Fed chief Jerome Powell will be delivering the FOMC statement and press conference on March 22, where the committee will discuss its monetary policy and potential interest rate changes.
Expected Rate Hike
Initially, most economists had anticipated a 50 basis points (bps) rate hike and a hawkish stance from the committee. However, recent banking crises have caused many experts to lower their expectations to a 25 bps hike.
Banking Instability
The instability of the global banking system is evident, with the recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. In addition, First Republic Bank’s stock price plunged 82.9% from the previous week’s closing price, adding to the uncertainty. Even Credit Suisse, a global financial giant, suffered a historic low this week, with its key investor announcing that they would not inject further capital into the bank.
Softer Policy Statement
Given the current state of the global banking system, many experts are predicting that the FOMC may deliver a softer policy statement next week. Some even speculate that there will be no hike to restore liquidity and stability to the system.
Proactive Approach
It is expected that Powell will take a balanced and proactive approach to the situation. He may address the recent banking crises and how the FOMC plans to tackle them while maintaining the overall health of the banking system.
Concerns over Credit Suisse’s Financial Condition
Now, world markets are keenly watching the development of financially troubled Credit Suisse. Credit Suisse is one of the 30 world’s most prominent banks. So, any negative development from Credit Suisse will impact world financial systems adversely next week.
According to reports, UBS, the largest bank in Switzerland, is in talks to buy all or a portion of Credit Suisse, a troubled rival. The share price of Credit Suisse fell to a historic low recently after it disclosed a “material flaw” in its financial reporting.
Regulators are working to facilitate a deal between UBS and Credit Suisse before markets reopen on Monday in order to stop further drops in the price of Credit Suisse shares. Because it fell by 24% on Wednesday and provoked a widespread sell-off in European and U.S. markets. So, for now, world leaders are concerned about a greater financial catastrophe unless no immediate deals happen between the two Swiss banks.
Conclusion
There might be huge volatility in the market next week also due to various factors. It includes the events of the FOMC meeting, Credit Suisse, and troubled banks in the US. Traders and investors should keep an eye on these developments and also watch the crude oil price, bond market, and the US dollar index as they can also impact the markets.
However, a positive event in the global markets could result in a relief rally for the Indian benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex. Currently, there are no local negative factors affecting the Indian stock market. So, the recovery will be also faster if happens.
